Charles Esther
President Donald Trump recently announced a temporary trade deal with China.
The agreement reduces tariffs to 30% for a 90-day period.
While this may appear to be a breakthrough in the ongoing trade war, experts say the chaos is far from over.
Supply chain professionals told Business Insider that this short-term relief won’t undo the months of disruption caused by fluctuating policies.
Prices on consumer goods are still expected to rise, and supply chains are likely to remain unstable through the end of the year.
The Bullwhip Effect Is Still in Motion
The US economy is currently experiencing what’s known as the “bullwhip effect.”
This phenomenon describes how small shifts in consumer demand cause larger ripples throughout the supply chain.
These ripple effects lead to inefficient operations, unpredictable inventory levels, and unstable prices.
According to Nick Vyas from the University of Southern California, this version of the bullwhip is “policy-induced.”
Companies anticipated tariff hikes by stockpiling goods before they were imposed.
Later, many held back shipments to avoid paying high fees.
This stop-start pattern led to chaotic freight schedules and job losses across the shipping industry.
Now, with the 90-day window in place, businesses are rushing to refill inventories before tariffs potentially rise again.
This rush only intensifies existing instability.
Ports Brace for Another Inventory Surge
Chris Tang, a professor at UCLA, explained that the current lull in port activity is temporary.
He expects a flood of shipments over the next three months.
Companies are taking advantage of the reduced tariffs to restock while they can.
However, this sudden surge creates fresh challenges.
Bob Ferrari, managing director of the Ferrari Consulting and Research Group, warned that container shipping rates will climb.
Handling large volumes over a short period strains infrastructure, pushing up transportation costs.
Ultimately, these costs will be passed on to consumers.
Even though tariffs are lower for now, Americans will still face higher prices on many goods.
Double-Digit Price Increases Likely
Retailers are already preparing for long-term cost hikes.
Walmart CEO Doug McMillon confirmed that despite the temporary deal, the company expects continued price pressure.
He emphasised that a short-term agreement is not enough to curb inflation.
Lisa Anderson, president of LMA Consulting, called the impact of tariffs “mildly inflationary.”
While some sectors may see minimal change, others could be hit hard.
The final outcome will depend on the industry and how well companies adapt.
She believes that over time, prices could stabilise as businesses diversify supply chains.
By shifting sourcing to places like Mexico, India, or Latin America, companies might eventually lower costs.
But for now, prices on discretionary products — like electronics or trendy apparel — are likely to rise the fastest.
Some familiar products may even disappear from shelves altogether.
Markets Still Face Ongoing Uncertainty
Trump’s trade policies have left businesses in a state of confusion.
Since April, his administration has rolled out a mix of high tariffs, exemptions, and temporary pauses.
While some tariffs are now set at 30%, others remain as high as 145%.
These unpredictable moves have shaken investor confidence and complicated global supply chains.
Despite a major trade discussion over the weekend, which resulted in lowered tariffs on both sides, uncertainty still looms.
That’s because the new deal has another 90-day expiration window.
Without a long-term solution, companies cannot effectively plan for the future.
Tang explained that a permanent, stable agreement is essential.
Even if tariffs are high, consistency would help businesses adapt and manage their operations.
He added that collaboration doesn’t require friendship.
Both nations can remain competitors while working towards mutual stability.
Final Thoughts
While the temporary US–China tariff reduction offers some relief, the deeper problems remain unresolved.
Consumers should prepare for more price hikes and inconsistent product availability.
Supply chain experts agree: real recovery will take time, clear policy direction, and long-term cooperation.
Until then, volatility remains the name of the game.
