David Awoyode
As Vladimir Putin boards his plane back to Moscow, the Russian leader has reason to be satisfied. While the Alaska summit delivered little in terms of concrete agreements, he successfully broke through his diplomatic isolation and reasserted psychological leverage over U.S. President Donald Trump.
Trump’s Friendly Tone
Trump greeted Putin with the warmth of an old ally, smiling broadly despite facing a leader whose supporters frequently threaten nuclear strikes against the West and who views both the U.S. and U.K. as Russia’s enduring adversaries.
Sanctions and Military Pressure
With new sanctions looming, Putin needed renewed engagement with Washington — and appears to have secured it. Though no deals were finalized, the Russian president leaves the summit while his military continues to batter Ukraine, and the threat of tougher penalties appears delayed.
Long-Term Strategy Against Ukraine
Putin’s ultimate objective remains unchanged: to impose a humiliating settlement on Kyiv that fractures Ukraine’s social unity. Afterward, he plans to employ non-military tactics to weaken the country further, preparing the ground for future offensives — potentially even against the Baltic states and the wider West.
Ceasefires as Psychological Weapons
In Moscow’s playbook, ceasefires and negotiations are not paths to peace but instruments of division. Each pause is designed to sap the enemy’s resolve rather than resolve the war.
China’s Expanding Role
Meanwhile, China has deepened its economic grip on Russia. By purchasing discounted energy, Beijing benefits greatly from the conflict’s continuation and cements an almost colonial-style dependency.
Zelensky’s Dilemma
President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that any peace agreement forcing territorial concessions would devastate Ukrainian morale and national defense. Yet he must also guard against Trump potentially stepping back from support or even lifting sanctions without Kyiv’s consent.
Europe’s Weak Position
For now, Europe looks like the major loser. Divided, poorly led, and militarily unprepared, EU states have been sidelined in negotiations — a situation that plays directly into Putin’s narrative.
Trump’s Risk of Being Used
Although Trump’s desire for peace is sincere, he risks being manipulated into advancing Moscow’s agenda. If that happens, he could weaken Western unity and democracy’s moral standing. Tomorrow, he meets Zelensky in Washington to present a peace plan likely to demand Ukrainian land concessions — a proposal Zelensky has already rejected.
The Road Ahead
Germany, France, and the U.K. are scrambling to remain relevant, meeting by phone to discuss possible security guarantees if a deal emerges. Yet the reality is that Russia faces mounting financial pressure, raising speculation that the Kremlin may now be more open to compromise. Whether a settlement is achievable or the war drags on — already the bloodiest in Europe since World War II — will soon become clear.
