Charles Esther
Solana’s native token, SOL, surged to $205 on Tuesday after an 18% rally in under two days.
This sharp movement has sparked speculation on whether SOL can continue climbing toward the $250 mark in the near term.
Traders are assessing network fundamentals and derivatives activity to gauge whether the rally has enough momentum to persist.
SOL Outperforms Broader Crypto Market
Despite briefly dropping below the $200 psychological threshold, SOL outperformed the wider cryptocurrency market.
The token’s recent rise to $199 pushed its market capitalization to $107 billion, still trailing Binance Coin (BNB) at $117 billion.
Analysts note that a potential “flippening” would require strong performance in both network usage and derivatives markets.
On-Chain Activity Shows Growth
Over the past 30 days, Solana’s transaction count increased by 48%, signaling accelerating on-chain activity.
By contrast, BNB Chain transactions declined by 41% during the same period, according to Nansen data.
Additionally, network fees on Solana rose 43%, indicating that increased usage is generating tangible benefits for token holders.
SOL Futures Indicate Moderate Bullish Sentiment
Perpetual futures contracts reveal trader sentiment as SOL nears six-month highs.
The annualized funding rate for SOL perpetual futures currently sits at 12%, marking the threshold between neutral and bullish sentiment.
Investors remain cautious, recalling that the last time SOL traded above $200, it held for less than 24 hours.
Declining DEX Volumes Present Caution
Activity on Solana’s decentralized exchanges (DEX) fell for the third consecutive week, totaling $20.6 billion.
Over the past 30 days, Solana’s DEX volume reached $113.7 billion, slightly below Ethereum’s $116.2 billion, without including Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem, which contributed an additional $91.7 billion.
These figures suggest limited enthusiasm from traders, despite SOL’s price gains.
Solana Staking ETF Sees Modest Interest
The REX-Osprey Solana staking ETF, launched in July, has $161 million in assets under management.
In comparison, Ethereum ETFs recorded $2.33 billion in net inflows since August 5, even though US SEC approval for Ethereum staking features is still pending.
SOL Rally Lacks Clear Catalysts
Although SOL could theoretically reach $250, current on-chain and derivatives data show no strong catalyst for a sustained surge.
The absence of excessive leverage may support a more sustainable rally, but growth depends on retail participation and institutional inflows, which hinge on SEC approval for a standard Solana ETF.
