Charles Esther
As the threat of a recession looms, the fashion industry is expected to adapt in response to changing economic conditions.
Fashion experts predict that minimalism, neutral colors, and conservative cuts will dominate the apparel market, from high-end luxury brands to fast fashion chains.
This shift reflects the broader trend of consumers seeking simplicity and value during times of economic uncertainty.
The Influence of Past Recessions on Fashion Trends
History has shown that recessions tend to shape fashion trends in distinct ways.
During economic downturns, fashion often moves away from bold, extravagant designs toward more modest and familiar styles.
According to trend forecasters and fashion experts, this pattern will likely repeat itself if the current economic situation worsens.
“When the future feels uncertain, fashion tends to recoil into the familiar,” says Sarah Owen, a trend forecaster and social scientist.
Past recessions provide clues about what may be coming.
For example, during the Great Depression of the 1930s, fashion became more conservative, with hemlines lengthening and muted colors becoming more common.
The same trend was observed after the dot-com bust in 2001, with Americans turning to safe, nostalgic Americana.
Following the Great Recession of 2008, “recession-core minimalism” emerged as consumers sought comfort in simplicity.
Monisha Klar, director of fashion at WGSN, adds, “Past recessions see fashion trends get quieter,” with an emphasis on blacks, whites, neutrals, and grays.
SThese subdued tones signal a shift away from flashy, attention-grabbing styles to more functional, versatile pieces.
Quiet Luxury and the Resilience of High-End Fashion
One fashion trend that is expected to persist, even during a recession, is quiet luxury.
Over the past few years, this understated approach to wealth and elegance has gained traction. Quiet luxury emphasizes timeless, well-crafted pieces that exude sophistication without being overtly ostentatious.
Despite the economic downturn, the ultra-wealthy may continue to invest in luxury clothing, although their purchases will likely reflect the broader cultural mood.
Dana Thomas, author of Deluxe: How Luxury Lost Its Luster, notes that post-2008, it became poor taste to flaunt wealth in the wake of a financial crisis.
Even if the wealthy continue to buy high-end clothing, they are more likely to choose subtle, elegant pieces rather than bold statement items.
“Luxury won’t vanish, ever, it just gets quieter,” says Sarah Owen, pointing to the enduring appeal of discreet luxury during challenging economic times.
However, some luxury brands could face challenges.
LVMH, which owns high-end labels like Louis Vuitton and Dior, reported disappointing sales growth in the first quarter.
Additionally, Hermès announced price increases in the U.S., anticipating the impact of tariffs on its growth.
While the luxury sector remains resilient, it may need to adjust to the changing economic landscape.
The Shift to Basics: Value and Versatility Over Extravagance
For everyday consumers, a recession is likely to prompt a focus on practicality and value.
With many people tightening their belts, versatile, high-quality basics will become more popular.
Vincent Quan, a professor at the Fashion Institute of Technology, predicts a “flight toward value”, with consumers opting for clothing that offers multiple styling options and long-lasting wear.
Maximalist fashion ideas, characterized by bold colors, excessive embellishments, and attention-grabbing designs, are expected to take a backseat.
Instead, office-inspired looks and wardrobe staples—such as tailored trousers, simple blouses, and classic jackets—will be in demand.
This shift reflects the need for affordable, durable clothing that can withstand frequent use.
The trend toward basics will likely benefit the resale market, with second-hand clothing becoming an attractive option for budget-conscious shoppers.
However, mid-tier luxury brands—those that occupy the space between fast fashion and high-end luxury—may suffer, as consumers may downgrade their purchases in favor of more affordable options.
“Mid-tier luxury is always the first to feel the squeeze,” says Sarah Owen, highlighting how consumers often prioritize necessity over luxury when budgets are tight.
Tariffs and Trade Wars: Uncertainty Looms Over Fast Fashion
Another factor contributing to the upheaval in the fashion industry is the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China.
In 2023, the U.S. imported $19.6 billion worth of textiles and clothing from China.
The tariffs imposed on Chinese goods have had a profound impact on the entire apparel sector, including both fast fashion and luxury brands.
Anne Higonnet, an art history professor at Barnard College, points out that while some clothing production has shifted from China to other countries like Vietnam and Cambodia, the tariffs could still deliver a significant blow to fast fashion.
As factories in China face higher costs, fast fashion brands may struggle to maintain their low prices, potentially resulting in higher consumer prices or lower-quality products.
“One misconception is that China only makes cheap products, but they also produce high-end items,” says Derek Guy, a prominent menswear writer.
“Chinese factories manufacture everything from $5 Shein tops to $1,200 hand-knitted cashmere sweaters.”
If manufacturers are forced to relocate, consumers could face rising prices or diminished quality, impacting both affordable and luxury fashion alike.
The Future of Fashion in an Uncertain Economy
In times of economic uncertainty, the fashion industry is likely to gravitate toward safer, more familiar territory.
With minimalism, neutral colors, and timeless pieces gaining prominence, fashion will reflect a more subdued, pragmatic approach to style.
Whether it’s luxury brands embracing quiet elegance or consumers seeking value and versatility in their clothing, the industry is preparing for a shift toward simplicity.
As Sarah Owen concludes, “If this carries on like it is, we’re going to just keep wearing beige.”
The next chapter in fashion may be characterized by a return to the basics—an emphasis on comfort, quality, and understated elegance.
Conclusion
As the fashion industry braces for the impact of a potential recession, minimalism, quiet luxury, and versatile basics will likely define the trends of the future.
Whether it’s luxury brands adjusting to a more restrained consumer mindset or shoppers opting for practical, long-lasting wardrobe staples, the apparel industry is preparing for a shift toward simplicity and sustainability.
As we navigate uncertain economic times, fashion will continue to reflect our evolving values and priorities.
