Charles Esther
“We’re on AI time,” is the phrase I often use to explain the extraordinary speed at which artificial intelligence and related technologies are evolving.
Even though it has only been two and a half years since OpenAI launched ChatGPT, the pace of AI development far outstrips traditional tech growth models like Moore’s Law.
Moore’s Law predicted that the number of transistors on a chip would double every two years.
Now, AI capabilities—especially in generative models—are doubling approximately every three months.
This shift marks the beginning of what I call the AI Model Law, or “Ulanoff’s Law,” reflecting a much faster cycle of innovation.
Unprecedented Speed of AI Adoption
Skeptics might question the rapid development of Large Language Models (LLMs), but the speed of adoption is undeniable.
Mary Meeker, a general partner at BOND Investments, recently released a 340-page report illustrating the transformative nature of AI.
Her data confirms what many of us feel intuitively: the current wave of AI evolution is unlike anything seen before.
One striking example is how quickly ChatGPT gained users.
Google took nine years to reach 365 billion annual searches, while ChatGPT hit the same milestone in just two years.
Such statistics emphasize how quickly AI is becoming embedded in daily life and business.
Comparing Past Technology Revolutions
Having witnessed previous technological shifts—the rise of personal computing, the transition from analog to digital publishing, and the internet revolution—I can say AI time is different.
Earlier tech waves unfolded more gradually, often spanning decades to reach mass adoption.
For instance, it took over a decade for personal computers to become ubiquitous after their initial launch.
Similarly, the internet’s integration into society was slow and met with confusion.
I remember 1994, when TV hosts were genuinely puzzled about what the internet was.
In contrast, AI platforms like ChatGPT and Copilot have met almost no public confusion and rapid acceptance.
Explosive Growth in AI Users and Subscribers
Meeker’s report highlights ChatGPT’s explosive growth from zero users in October 2020 to 400 million by late 2024—and 800 million in 2025.
Remarkably, 20 million of those users are paying subscribers.
Convincing people to pay for online content was a long battle during the early internet era.
With AI, users are eager and ready to invest financially.
The Road to AI Today
Artificial intelligence is not an overnight phenomenon.
Over the past two decades, breakthroughs like IBM’s Deep Blue defeating chess champion Gary Kasparov and DeepMind’s AlphaGo winning against the best Go players paved the way.
Still, these advances came at a relatively digestible pace.
The acceleration truly began around 2016, when concerns about AI’s impact led to the creation of the Partnership on AI by major tech companies.
However, despite warnings, the growth of AI models and public interest have rapidly surged beyond expectations.
AI’s Future Predictions and Concerns
According to ChatGPT’s own forecasts, by 2030 AI will be capable of creating full-length movies and games, operating human-like robots, running autonomous businesses, and simulating human-like minds.
These predictions might even be conservative since AI models are limited by current human knowledge.
The rise of humanoid robots and autonomous AI-driven businesses is already accelerating faster than anticipated.
The Role of Hardware and AI Model Law
Some argue that hardware improvements, like Nvidia’s GPU advancements (Huang’s Law), dictate AI’s pace.
While hardware performance doubles roughly every two years, AI model capabilities are improving much faster.
This suggests AI development is not bottlenecked by silicon advances but driven by breakthroughs in model design and training.
Embracing AI Time
Accepting the idea of AI Time means recognizing that the technology revolution is no longer measured in years or decades but in months.
This rapid pace challenges businesses, governments, and individuals to adapt quickly or risk falling behind.
Whether we’re ready or not, the AI revolution is unfolding before our eyes and will redefine how we live and work.
Conclusion
The transformation driven by AI is unparalleled in history.
Its speed of development and adoption dwarfs previous technological leaps.
Understanding and adapting to this new AI Time is essential for anyone hoping to thrive in the coming years.
The future shaped by AI is not a distant dream but a rapidly approaching reality.
